Opportunities in battery manufacturing equipment

Recent breakthroughs in e-mobility will result in unprecedented demand for electric vehicles (EVs), despite the economic and supply disruptions that resulted from the COVID-19 crisis. With this rising demand will come a huge jump in demand for batteries. Battery manufacturing is rampingup around the world to match local demand. To serve European EV manufacturing, established battery cell companies and emerging startups have announced plans to build combined production capacity of up to 965 gigawatt-hours (GWh) per year in Europe by 2030—accounting for 28 percent of 2030's announced global capacity of around 3,500 GWh and increasing 20-fold from 2020.1McKinsey battery supply tracker, December 2021.

This article is a collaborative effort by Jakob Fleischmann, Dorothee Herring, Ruth Heuss, Friederike Liebach, and Martin Linder, representing views from McKinsey's Advanced Electronics Practice.

To meet growing demand, roughly 30 new battery-manufacturingfacilities will need to come online across Europe, requiring up to €100 billion in capital expenditures (Exhibit 1). Roughly 60 percent of the total investment will be earmarked for batterycell manufacturing equipment. This translates to a €5 billion to €7 billion annual business opportunity for the manufacturing-equipment industry in Europe by 2025 and €7 billion to €9 billion in the second half of the decade.

In the battery cell manufacturing process, three steps require roughly equal shares of capital expenditures: 35 to 45 percent for electrode-manufacturing equipment, 25 to 35 percent forcell-assembly-and-handling equipment, and 30 to 35 percent for cell-finishing equipment (Exhibit 2). Some processes, such as coating and electrolyte filling, are either unique or highly specific to battery cell manufacturing. These processes require clean- and dry-room conditions and expertise in, for example, high-accuracy thin-layer deposition. Other processes, such asslitting, cell formation, and aging, are similar toprocesses that are widely used in other industriesor require intramanufacturing-logistics equipment.

Today, only a handful of companies that specialize in battery cell manufacturing equipment—used for slurry mixing, electrode manufacturing, cell assembly, and cell finishing—are operating in Europe; the majority are in China, Japan, and South Korea (Exhibit 3). However, most of these incumbent battery cell manufacturing suppliers are operating at more than 95 percent capacity, leaving little room to increase output. Moreover, they may prioritize orders from established customers (mostly leadingincumbent cell manufacturers) over those from new market entrants from Europe and the United States. As a result, European battery cell manufacturing companies and EV OEMs who enter the field arelikely to face a bottleneck in equipment supply that will place their planned start of production at risk. Securing equipment supply is a key success factor.

European equipment manufacturers have an opportunity to capture a fair share of the revenue pool by becoming key suppliers to established cell manufacturers that are expanding into Europe and the United States, as well as to newly founded battery manufacturers, given their geographic proximity, which facilitates the installation, ramp-up, and support for equipment.Equipment manufacturers that already sell the needed equipment could expand their capacity to meet surging demand and approach existing and new customers. Meanwhile, manufacturers that do not currently sell the equipment needed to produce battery cells could leverage their existing machinery and equipment expertise from similar processes to pivot into this market. This articlediscusses the anticipated shortfall in equipment and presents options for equipment suppliers to fill this void.

EV OEMs and battery cell manufacturing companies will need manufacturing equipment to ramp up production fast and to ensure high factory production performance. Since the majority of announced new gigafactories have planned to start productionprior to 2025, companies are making buying decisions about manufacturing equipment supply now. Furthermore, the emergence of new battery cell manufacturing companies planning to buildgigafactories unlocks opportunities for equipment manufacturers to secure new supply contracts, rather than compete solely based on existing relationships with incumbent battery cell manufacturers.

The European Green Deal, national support schemes, pressure from activist investors, and broad stakeholder support for sustainable energy coalesce to give battery manufacturing equipment suppliers attractive access to public and privatefunding. Equipment manufacturers can take advantage of this favorable environment to support their growth plans in the battery cell industry. However, competition among equipment suppliers will intensify, requiring all involved stakeholders to carefully assess their existing operations and capabilities and craft strategies to make the most of this unprecedented opportunity.

While equipment manufacturers that already have expertise and capacity for battery manufacturing equipment can use the beneficial funding environment to grow their businesses, others can capture the opportunity by pivoting their competencies.

Equipment suppliers to industries whose manufacturing process steps are comparable to those of battery cell production have a particularly advantageous starting position to pursue the battery opportunity. The high-capital-expenditure coating and drying process, for example, requires high-accuracy thin-layer deposition, with some similarities to what is needed in the paper, tape, glass, and technical textile–manufacturing equipment industries.

Cell assembly, which entails punching, stacking, winding, welding, and sealing, is relatively less specific to battery manufacturing, and more similar to general manufacturing and automation processes. The growth opportunity in battery cell manufacturing equipment can thus become an attractive opportunity for machinery companies looking for new growth markets to which they can transfer their existing skills and expertise.

European equipment manufacturers looking to pivot to or expand in the battery cell equipment market can consider four pathways to developing the competencies they will need to effectively compete:

Determined equipment players, such as Manz, can strategically combine multiple pathways for accelerated and effective building of battery know-how, including acquisitions and strategic cooperation with both European and Asian partners. Likewise, Dürr took the first step into battery equipment around 2018, supported by the acquisition of American companies MEGTEC and Universal.5"Dürr completes takeover of MEGTEC/Universal and forms leading provider of industrial environmental technology," Dürr Group, October 8, 2018. Through the acquisition, Dürr gained competencies in coating systems for lithium-ion battery electrodes, which it further expanded through its strategic partnership with Techno Smart.

The leading equipment companies pay close attention to industry developments and battery manufacturer moves, seek partnerships, and join research initiatives and focused alliances.

Equipment companies that are leading in the development of battery competencies exhibit several common characteristics:

European manufacturers that are considering entering the battery cell manufacturing equipment market have numerous pathways to consider, but each requires moving quickly to avoid getting locked out of what promises to be a sizable and lucrative market. Now is the time to act as financing solidifies and gigafactory construction plans move forward. After carefully analyzing the competencies needed at each stage and substage of the battery cell manufacturing process, companies can assess whether they have the necessary expertise to address this new market demand, or can transfer or pivot adjacent expertise. Those that do not can still leverage their advantaged positions to participate through a strategic partnership, joint venture, or combination of the two. The best way to burnish your reputation, learn by doing, and establish a foothold from which to expand is to initiate a project with an existing customer or partner and deliver above expectations with respect to time, quality, and cost. Companies that approach the work thoughtfully and with an appropriate sense of urgency will reap the benefits of expanding into an exciting new market.

Jakob Fleischmann is an associate partner in McKinsey's Munich office, where Martin Linder is a senior partner; Dorothee Herring is a partner in the Düsseldorf office; and Ruth Heuss is a senior partner in the Berlin office; Friederike Liebach is a consultant in the Frankfurt office.